抄録

　この論文の目的は,官公庁による景気動向判断の「政治性」について議論する.まず「デフレ脱却論」に象徴されるように,なぜ景気動向判断において,これほどまでになぜ物価指数動向が異様にウエイトを持つようになったか,その政治的背景を経済理論から分析する.そのうえで昨今のデフレには,日本経済としてなんら憂慮すべきものはなく,むしろ現時点では景気・資産価格の過熱を憂慮して,引き締め気味の政策が必要であることを,新たに構築された理論をもとに明らかにする.

abstract

The paper deals with some political aspects of the official economic forecasting in Japan. Many economists, who are in kind of pseudo-politicians, stick on the monetary policy which aims at the emancipation from so called "deflation pressure". Hence the forecasting of the CPI becomes serious political issue. Nevertheless, I shall show here that the current deflation contains no substantial problem, and conversely, that the propaganda by such economists that stresses the need of inflation will surely causes the discredit on the public debts tremendously accumulated nowadays. It is deeply feared that such suspect of the value of the public debts triggers somewhat awful financial panics and macroeconomic turmoil.