抄録

　希望を有する個人や世帯の特徴は,その実現見通しや内容などの類型により異なっている.プロビットモデルの推定結果によれば,実現見通しのある希望及び仕事に関する希望を有する確率が高いのは,20代から30代の若年層,高校から高等教育機関への進学経験者,健康状態が良好な場合であった.また本人年収が300万円未満の場合,実現見通しのある希望を持ちにくく,無収入者は仕事の希望を有しない傾向が強くなっていた.さらに年収1,000万円以上の高所得世帯に属する個人ほど実現見通しのある希望を有する確率は高く,年収300万円未満の世帯では,見通しのない希望を持っていたり,希望について否定的な考えを有することも多かった.以上の分析を通じて,日本社会において近年,希望の喪失感が広がってきていたとすれば,その社会的背景として,人口分布の高齢シフト,無業者・低所得者の増加,高所得世帯の減少,健康状況の悪化,進学率の停滞等が影響していた可能性があることを示した.

abstract

The attributes of individuals and households possessing hope differed according to such factors as whether they believed their hopes would come true and the kind of hope they espoused. An empirical study showed that expectations of realizing one's hopes and hopes regarding work were most noticeably possessed by younger individuals in their twenties and thirties, who had advanced to higher academic background, and who were relatively healthy. Respondents were less likely to have expectations that their hopes would be realized when annual income was low such as less than \3 million while those with high annual income of more than \10 million were likely to have hope they expected to achieve. As with realizable hope, those without any income frequently did not have work-related hope, or had a generally negative view of hope. This analysis suggests that the expanding loss of hope that is felt in Japanese society may have been influenced by such factors as the demographic shift to a grayer population, increase in the number of nonemployed people and low-income earners, decrease in high-income households, deteriorating state of health, and stagnation in the academic advancement rate.