abstract

What explains the 2009 electoral loss by Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and more generally, Japan’s changing political landscape? While the LDP’s loss to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was large in vote count and impact, creating the first non-LDP government in the post-war period, the LDP’s popularity had been in gradual decline over several elections. Despite its advantageous position as the incumbent party in power and the continued absence of a strong opposition party, the LDP lost crucial votes even in districts long under their control. Such electoral results suggest a long-term, amplifying structural change that has shifted the political preferences of Japanese voters. We seek to explain the LDP’s decline over the past several elections by exploring many of the ongoing structural changes in Japan and their influence on political outcomes.