abstract

In the 2000 and 2004 Taiwan presidential elections, China attempted to deter Taiwanese voters from supporting the pro-independence candidates by issuing stern warning. The China factor in Taiwan’s electoral politics is not limited to its military threat. In the last two decades, Taiwan’s economy has been integrated into China’s economy at an ever increasing rate. By the end of 2010, Taiwan's exports to China (including Hong Kong) constituted 41.8 percent of Taiwan's total exports. In addition, thousands of Taiwanese are residing in China for reasons of employment. The pro-independence political parties are concerned about the strong economic tie between China and Taiwan because it might influence voters’ preferences on the independence-unification issue and, in turn, on their vote choice. In this paper I study whether China's threat to Taiwan and Taiwan’s economic integration with China will have any significant effects on vote choice in the forthcoming 2012 presidential election in Taiwan.