概要

　本論文では，就職氷河期とその前後の世代に関して，就業動向を中心に比較検証した．
　結果，2000 年代半ばまでの若年男性を対象とした労働市場の世代効果に関する先行研究には含まれなかった新たな事実が，いくつか観察された．
　総務省統計局「労働力調査」の公表データを用いたコーホート分析からは，若年期の一定期間を通じ深刻な就業難を経験した氷河期世代も，中年期にさしかかり，男性の正社員率や就業率は，以前のバブル世代に匹敵する水準まで上昇接近していた．氷河期以降，新卒労働市場の需給は上向いたが，男性の正社員率は硬直的な経路を辿り，世代間で明確な違いはみられなかった．女性の場合，正規雇用化や就業参加は，新しい世代ほど上向いていた．
　厚生労働省「賃金センサス」から40 代前半大学・大学院卒の実質賃金に着目すると，バブル世代に比べて氷河期世代では男女とも大きく減少していた．総務省統計局「社会生活基本調査」の特別集計では，氷河期世代の未婚無業者には，家族としか交流のない孤立無業者が多く含まれていた．
　氷河期世代の就業が改善に向かった理由として，個々人の努力に加え，労働者の高学歴化や職業紹介の民営化などの労働市場の構造変化，支援プログラム・若年雇用対策・仕事と子育ての両立支援といった政策の効果など，複合的要因が示唆された．今後は，賃金増加や孤立解消といった難易度の高い課題が，就職氷河期世代対策として残されている．それは70 歳までの就業機会確保の義務化に関する将来的な議論とも関連してくるだろう．

abstract

This paper compares and examines employment trends in the employment ice age and the generations before and after it. As a result, we observed several new facts that had not been included in previous studies on the generation eff ect of the labor market targeting young men up to the mid-2000s.
A cohort analysis using published data from the Labor Force Survey, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, shows that the ice age generation, who experienced serious employment diffi culties for a certain period of time in their youth, is approaching middle age, and the male regular employment rate and employment rate was approaching a rise to levels comparable to previous bubble generations. Since the Ice Age, the supply and demand in the new graduate labor market has improved, but the rate of regular male employment has followed a rigid path, with no clear diff erences between generations. In the case of women, the rate of regular employment and employment participation increased as the generation progressed.
Looking at the real wages of university and graduate school graduates in their early 40s from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare’s “Wage Census,” there was a large decrease in the real wages for both men and women in the ice age generation compared to the bubble generation. According to special statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ Statistics Bureau’s “Basic Survey on Social Life,” many unmarried and jobless people of the ice age generation were solitary and only interacted with their families.
The reasons for the improvement in the employment of the Ice Age generation include, in addition to individual eff orts, structural changes in the labor market, such as the increasing educational attainment of workers and the privatization of job placement services, support programs, measures for youth employment, and balancing work and childcare. Multiple factors were suggested, including the effects of policies such as support. In the future, the highly difficult tasks of increasing wages and resolving isolation will remain as countermeasures for the employment ice age generation. It will also be relevant to future discussions on making it compulsory to secure employment opportunities until the age of 70.