This study investigates how permanent shocks to legal sectors where specific criminal groups operate affect the evolution of organized crime as a whole, both in the short and long run. It focuses on Japanese organized crime, the yakuza, and the 1960s energy transition from domestic coal to imported oil. The transition reduced coal mining jobs, negatively impacting both coal miners and yakuza groups involved in the coal mining industry. The study shows that as coal mining declined, mining-associated yakuza members substituted to income-generating crime and joined non-mining yakuza groups rather than coal miners joining the yakuza. New business opportunities expanded in nearby non-mining municipalities over time, which yakuza groups exploited to expand their territories. Coal-rich areas experienced persistent violent yakuza conflicts lasting over fifty years. Today, areas with greater mining job losses have more yakuza members and groups. However, yakuza exclusion ordinances enacted in the 2010s, which reduce demand for yakuza services and restrict the substitution of their economic activities, help partially break this persistent cycle.

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